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<title>Tim's Bits and Pieces: Stats</title>
<link>http://blog.timp.com.au</link>
<description>My personal blog, covering many random topics</description>
<pubDate>Tue, 08 Dec 2015 03:29:14 +0200</pubDate>
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<title>Presidential Candidate with the Most American Surname
</title>
<link>http://blog.timp.com.au/candidate_most_american_name%3A2015-12-08%3APolitics%2CStats</link>
<comments>http://blog.timp.com.au/candidate_most_american_name%3A2015-12-08%3APolitics%2CStats#comments</comments>
<pubDate>Tue, 08 Dec 2015 03:29:14 +0200</pubDate>
<dc:creator>TimP</dc:creator>
<category>Politics</category>
<category>Stats</category>
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<description><![CDATA[ <p>So, for anyone living under a rock, apparently the Yanks are having a
 [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p>So, for anyone living under a rock, apparently the Yanks are having a
 Presidential election, and it's my duty as a random guy on the Internet to have
 an opinion on the election. I haven't really been paying much attention to the
 issues, but I can use help you out with by far the most important issue: Who
 has the most American Surname.</p>
 
 <p>For a data source, <a href='http://forebears.io/surnames'>Forebears</a> has
 a nice system where you can find out various stats about different surnames,
 which we'll use for this. Using that I calculated the percentage of people
 with each surname who live in the US <em>[excluding any who aren't known to
 Forebears.io]</em>.</p>
 
 <p style='text-align:center'>
 <a href='http://static.timp.com.au/images/2015-12-08_presidental_candidate_most_american_name_percentages.png' target='_blank'>
 	<img
 		src='http://static.timp.com.au/images/2015-12-08_presidental_candidate_most_american_name_percentages.png'
 		width='70%' alt='Candidate with the Most American Name graph'
 	/></a><br />
 <strong>Huckabee 2016!</strong>; <em>Click for Larger Version</em>
 </p>
 
 <p>Huckabee is a very strong winner here, with 3,700 in America, and only 20 in
 the entire rest of the world, or a 99.5% America surname. No one else is even
 close to matching him.</p>
 
 <p>You might think that I would have done better to simply pick the name
 that's most common in America, but calling "Smith" the most American name ever
 doesn't seem quite right to me.</p>
 
 <p>To give an example of why, most people would say that <a
 href='http://forebears.io/surnames/ainsworth'>Ainsworth</a> is a more English
 name than <a href='http://forebears.io/surnames/smith'>Smith</a>. This is
 reflected in the stats: 28% of Ainsworth's live in England, but only 9% of
 Smiths do.</p>
 
 <p>Interestingly Ainsworth is actually more common in America than England,
 but only slightly more popular; not the six times more numerous the population
 differences would suggest, while Smith is pretty close to six times more
 numerous. The same comparison works for Australia as well; Smith is about how
 popular you'd expect it to be given our population differences, while
 Ainsworth is about half as popular in Australia as you'd expect it to be.
 The conclusion is obvious: Smith is a generic Anglosphere name, while
 Ainsworth is more of a specifically English name.</p>
 
 <p>For those of you who remain unconvinced, here's total numbers instead,
 which gives Sanders a slight lead over Cruz, and then Graham, with everyone
 else much further down:</p>
 
 <p style='text-align:center'>
 <a href='http://static.timp.com.au/images/2015-12-08_presidental_candidate_most_american_name_totals.png' target='_blank'>
 	<img
 		src='http://static.timp.com.au/images/2015-12-08_presidental_candidate_most_american_name_totals.png'
 		width='70%' alt='Candidate with the Most American Name graph'
 	/></a><br />
 <strong>Sanders 2016!</strong>; <em>Click for Larger Version</em>
 </p>
 
 <p>If you want them, you can download the original <a
 href='http://static.timp.com.au/files/presidental_candidate_most_american_name.data'>data-set</a>
 and <a
 href='http://static.timp.com.au/files/presidental_candidate_most_american_name.gnuplot'>gnuplot
 script</a>.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
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